Is a Recession Coming? Prepare Like It Is.
Is a recession coming? No one knows the date. But as of September 2025, the market has had a bull run for more than 16 years, and the S&P 500 is up roughly 780% since February 2009—about 14.7% a year with dividends. Even with COVID and the 2022 Fed hikes, returns have stayed above average for a long time.
I’m not here to predict a top. I am here to say major recessions are inevitable—we’ll likely see more than one in our lifetimes. Preparation beats prediction, every time.
After 25 years advising families through 2000, 2008, and 2020, I’ve seen the same pattern. People don’t suffer because they didn’t know downturns can happen; they suffer because they didn’t plan. For retirees, the stakes are higher—no one wants to go back to work.
Build for the Hard Days: Why Most Plans Fail When Markets Drop
Most investors think a plan matters most when markets rise. The real test is the ugly day—when headlines scream and portfolios fall. Great plans let you act calmly, protect cash, and stay ready for opportunity.
Buckets Beat Blind Faith
Riding out every drop without a roadmap is risky. We run the buckets as a “bi-polar” plan—take risk where it belongs and be fiercely risk-off with reserves: cash and short bonds cover spending while long-term stocks drive growth. In selloffs you draw from reserves, not growth—and in strength you refill the safety buckets.
Sell Into Strength, Not Panic
Emotions kill returns. Rules protect them. Clear targets, drift bands, and staged limit orders help you trim winners and add to laggards on purpose—not because of headlines.
Allocation Alone Won’t Save You
Diversification isn’t magic in a real selloff. Correlations often spike, and many “safe” assets fall together. The edge comes from pairing allocation with liquidity and rules so cash keeps flowing and you aren’t forced to sell low.
Taxes Matter More in Downturns
Down markets expose weak tax planning. Loss harvesting, charitable gifting with appreciated shares, and well-sized Roth conversions can reduce friction and preserve future growth. Small moves—tax-aware rebalancing or better asset location—compound over time.
The Hard Truth
No one can time the next pullback. Plans fail when fear, not rules, makes the decisions. Prepared, disciplined, and tax-aware beats anxious, reactive, and lucky.
Don’t Wait for the Market to Decide
Markets won’t wait—and neither should your plan. Reply now to get our Market Pullback Playbook and discover 5 steps to protect your wealth when markets turn. Want a strategy built just for you? Schedule a no-obligation meeting here: seveywealth.com/intro-call
